ESPN’S FPI Not Favorable for Utah State

With the release of ESPN’s Football Power Index, we got a good idea of how the worldwide leader in sports and its algorithm views the FBS teams here in Utah.

We already broke down both Utah and BYU’s statistical chances per the FPI, and they were both underwhelming per the ESPN metrics.

Utah was slated to 5^th in the Big 12 with 7.8 wins and an 8.2 % chance of taking home the Big 12 title.

The Utes were credited with a 12.5 % chance of appearing in the new playoff format.

I can only assume that the Utes and the fans themselves have higher expectations.

BYU was projected to finish 2^nd to last with 4.8 wins and 0.5 chance of winning the conference.

In terms of playoffs, 0.6 % was the less than promising number listed.

Once again, BYU and their fans likely have higher hopes of being able to surpass a Cincinnati or Arizona State, two teams they were placed behind in the FPI.

If we move further north, was ESPN any friendlier to the team residing in Cache Valley?

The short answer is: no, no they were not.

Out of the 12 teams that call the Mountain West home, Utah State was pegged to finish 7^th overall in terms of odds to capture the Mountain West.

Only two seasons removed from a Mountain West title, the Aggies were given a projected win total of 5.7.

This isn't too crazy of a guess as the Aggies have finished with 6 wins in two consecutive season.

In multiple simulations, the FPI gave Utah State a 53.2 % chance of winning six games and becoming bowl eligible.

As far as the bigger picture is concerned, USU received a 3.9 % chance to win the Mountain West as a whole.

That 3.9 percentage is narrowly above Wyoming (3.8%), and a hair higher than Colorado State (3.2%)

It also trumps Hawaii, New Mexico and Nevada.

Last years victor, Boise State, is the overwhelming favorite once again to sit a the top with a 36.2 % slice of taking the Mountain West and potentially ending up in the playoffs (16.2%)

Utah State notched the same probability of the playoffs as BYU with a 0.6%.

The full probabilities of winning the division are as follows:

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (36.2%)

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (18.1 %)

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (8.9%)

SAN JOSE SPARTANS (8.7%)

AIR FORCE FALCONS (7.1%)

UNLV REBELS (6.3%)

UTAH STATE AGGIES (3.9 %)

WYOMING COWBOYS (3.8%)

COLORADO STATE RAMS (3.2%)

HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS (1.8%)